Industry loss estimates for the first half of 2023 remain well above the decadal average despite the comparatively smaller impact on reinsurers. A range of industry sources have estimated that first-half insured losses from natural catastrophes were in the $50bn to $53bn range. Warmer, drier weather provides conditions conducive for larger, more-intense wildfires. Wildfire: In Europe, extreme heat contributed to extraordinary wildfire activity, particularly in Italy and Greece.Warmer surface temperatures with increasing atmospheric moisture and instability increase the risk of extreme hail events. The conditions persisted for a week and resulted in some of the largest hail on record. The Mediterranean reached its highest ever recorded temperature of over 28☌. Severe convective storm: In July, heat waves along with low-pressure systems bringing warm humid air from the Mediterranean resulted in extreme hail in central Europe, particularly in Italy.Warmer air holds more moisture, adding to the risk of extreme precipitation. Additional flooding occurred in Slovenia in August and in Greece, Turkey, Bulgaria, Spain and Libya in September. Flood: Heavy rainfall in May led to widespread flooding in the Emilia-Romagna region of Italy.Even with a strengthening El Niño (which typically supresses hurricane activity), the ongoing North Atlantic hurricane season has so far been above average in terms of accumulated cyclone energy. Warmer SSTs mean stronger and wetter tropical cyclones are possible. North Atlantic SSTs eclipsed 25☌ for the first time on record, while global SSTs surpassed 21☌ for the first time. Tropical cyclone: Since mid-March, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the North Atlantic have exceeded daily records every day. With the forecasted strengthening of El Niño, multiple outlooks have suggested over a 90 percent probability of 2023 becoming the warmest year on record and a 50 percent chance of meeting or beating the 1.5☌ above pre-industrial temperatures threshold.Ĭlimate change has significant impacts beyond increasing global temperature, and its effect on natural catastrophe activity can manifest in extreme events for multiple perils:
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